You’re in the middle of a probability question and it says something like:
The probability of rolling a 6 is 0.3.
The dice is rolled 200 times.
Estimate how many times it lands on 6.
And everyone (including your teacher) immediately does this:
0.3 × 200
…and somehow gets the answer.
But if you’re thinking:
“Why are we multiplying? Where did that come from?”
Good. That question is the difference between copying a method and actually understanding probability.
Let’s make it make sense.
The idea: probability is “out of 1”, frequency is “out of lots”
A probability is basically saying:
“Out of 1 attempt, what fraction of the time would this happen?”
So if the probability is 0.3, that means:
“This should happen about 30% of the time.”
Now if you don’t do it once…
You do it 200 times…
You’re asking a different question:
“If it happens 30% of the time, how many times is that out of 200?”
That’s why we multiply.
A simpler example first: coins
If you flip a fair coin:
- Probability of tails = 0.5
- If you flip it 200 times, how many tails should you expect?
Half of 200 is 100.
So you do:
0.5 × 200 = 100
That multiplication isn’t random.
The rule (this is the whole topic)
If something has probability
and you try it times,
then the estimated number of times it happens is:
expected frequency (or relative frequency) = probability × total trials
Back to the dice question
Probability of a 6 = 0.3
Number of rolls = 200
So the estimate is:
0.3 × 200 = 60
Meaning:
If you rolled this biased dice 200 times, you’d expect about 60 sixes.
Not guaranteed. Just the best estimate.
Why this works (the “feel” for it)
Think of it like this:
- Probability tells you the “rate”
- Total tells you “how many chances you have”
- Multiply them to get “how many hits you expect”
It’s the same logic as:
“If 30% of the class is left-handed, and there are 200 students… how many left-handed students would you expect?”
Same exact maths.
Quick check you can do in your head
Before you even calculate, do this:
- 0.3 is about a third
- a third of 200 is about 66
- so the answer should be somewhere around 60–70
So 60 makes sense.
This is how you stop silly mistakes.
Final thought
You multiply probability by the total because:
Probability is a proportion.
The total tells you how many chances you have.
Multiplying applies the proportion to the total.
That’s all relative frequency really is:
turning probability into an estimate.



Leave a comment